Diversified mining giant Rio Tinto has reined in its lithium growth plans, confirming at its capital markets day in London that it will restrict investment to projects already under way, with any further expansion dependent on market conditions and returns.

CEO Simon Trott said Rio Tinto would complete its current suite of lithium developments – including the Rincon brine project in Argentina and one spodumene mine in Canada – to reach around 200 000 t/y of lithium capacity by 2028. The miner had previously guided 225 000 t/y.

Trott said Rio Tinto remained confident in the underlying demand outlook, particularly for grid storage, but emphasised that capital discipline and cash preservation would shape future decisions. The company is prioritising completion of its in-flight projects alongside the Oyu Tolgoi underground expansion and the Simandou iron-ore build-out, with group capital expenditure set to fall below $10-billion from 2028.

The company had already halted spending at the Jadar lithium project in Serbia, placing it on care and maintenance. During the question-and-answer session, energy chief Jérôme Pécresse added that Rio Tinto was studying whether the next mine in Canada would be the Whabouchi or Galaxy deposit, but said capital deployment would be limited until the review was complete. Both projects were being kept live at minimal cost.

“I think it's a reasonable capital decision to open one mine, not two, but too early to say which one it's going to be,” he said.

Trott told investors that further lithium investments would proceed only when market fundamentals justifies it and when projects met Rio Tinto’s returns criteria. The company was reserving about $3-billion a year for growth across the portfolio, but would not allocate capital where it could not “move the needle” or generate adequate value.

“We have a clear path through to the 200 000 t by 2028 and that will be a fantastic business for us,” said Trott. “On the other projects, we’ll continue to assess them based on the market fundamentals as those businesses come up to sanction.”

Trott maintained that Rio Tinto still held “the best undeveloped lithium assets in the business”, but said the company would not pursue growth for its own sake. He reiterated that a strong balance sheet took precedence, with cash freed up from asset reviews and infrastructure rationalisation expected to support returns to shareholders.